Tensions have grown on the border, in the face of the possibility of more conflict over Donbass’s eastern part Donbass increases.
In the midst of Moscow continues to build up its troops near their border with Ukraine increasing numbers of observers are directly asking this question which has been looming for a long time over the conflict in Donbass Is Russia planning to attack Ukraine?
It is a constant Donbass Conflict stems from 2014. In the aftermath of the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine Russia-backed separatists from the eastern region, which is dominated by Russians in the Donbass region established an autonomous Donetsk and Luhansk Republics . They declared their independence from Ukraine within a short time. A number of ceasefires indefinitely made since the beginning of the conflict in summer of 2014 however none was enacted. In the past the separatists have frequently been attacked by Ukrainian mortars and combat vehicles for infantry (IFVs) as well as small arms. Additionally, these frequent violent skirmishes within urban environments have caused hundreds of civilian as well as military deaths. Additionally, Ukraine recently signed an import agreement with Turkey for an upcoming set of Bayraktar’s TB2 drones for combat.
Indicating one another of provocative conduct Both the Russian and Ukrainian parties are currently preparing for a new phase of military confrontation in Donbass. The recent troop increase by Russian troops close to the border with Ukraine is in response to Kremlin claims about Ukrainian troops are seeking to incite an “escalation of armed confrontation on the [Donbass] contact line.” Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russian concerns in a telephone conversation with journalists on Friday. “Our rhetoric [over Donbass] is absolutely constructive,” Peskov said. “Provocations from the Ukrainian military are commonplace. They’re not just random. There are many.”
Following earlier statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a grim warning to Ukraine and its western allies: “Russian President Putin said (this) not long ago, but this statement is still relevant today, that those who would try to start a new war in Donbass – will destroy Ukraine.” The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expressed concern that “Russia’s destabilizing actions undermine efforts to de-escalate tensions.” President Joe Biden spoke with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this morning in which he pledged “the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.”
However, the situation in the field suggests that Russia is not likely to be planning a massive westward incursion towards Ukrainian territory, at least not in a preemptive manner. After the signature of the Minsk Protocol agreement which laid out an electoral process to reintegrate the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics to Ukraine and the Kremlin has been a supporter of the Donbass separatists indirectly, and has threatened the possibility of a massive military response should Ukrainian forces attempt to retake the region that was split by force. The first side to launch a major offensive, it could be blamed for the destruction of the Minsk agreement, which is a liability for the international community which neither Moscow nor Kiev have been willing to accept.